Tensions in Iran may disrupt key Mideast waterways, heightening risks for shipping and oil transport

Commercial Ships Face Greater Threat as Strait of Hormuz Becomes a Focus

The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), the world's largest shipowners' association, has warned that following U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, the risks to commercial shipping in key waterways in the Middle East have significantly increased, even though Iran has not yet clarified its response. BIMCO's Head of Safety, Jakob Larsen, noted that not only the Strait of Hormuz but also other crucial routes, including the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, are facing increasing threats from Houthi armed attacks.

US-Linked Commercial Ships as Potential Targets

Larsen stated that U.S. naval vessels and commercial ships associated with the United States or Israel are likely to be prime targets for Iran and its allies, particularly through methods such as anti-ship missiles and drones. He also warned that if Iran were to deploy mines and block the strait, it would not only disrupt global oil transportation but could also trigger severe environmental incidents.

Houthi and Shia Militias Threaten Retaliation

Various Middle Eastern proxies have expressed their support for Iran. Yemeni Houthi forces have explicitly threatened to attack U.S. naval vessels in the Red Sea, while the “Brigades of Hezbollah” have warned of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Should the conflict escalate comprehensively, the oil transportation of major oil-exporting countries in the Middle East will be severely affected.

Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's major energy arteries, essential for nearly all Persian Gulf oil exports to global markets. Beyond crude oil, this waterway is also crucial for global container transportation, with major ports such as Dubai in the UAE depending on the strait for the transshipment of goods.

Shipping Companies Increase Alert Levels

German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has stated that, although they have not stopped crossing the Strait of Hormuz, they remain highly vigilant, and the situation may change at any moment. Some ships have already opted to reroute to avoid high-risk areas in the Middle East.

Freight and Insurance Costs Surge

The market has already reacted to the risks. Rates for long-haul oil tankers and natural gas carriers have surged, rising by 148% and 33%, respectively. According to Marsh, the world's largest insurance brokerage, marine insurance premiums for ships heading to the Gulf region have increased from 0.125% to 0.2%.

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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