Gaza ceasefire expected as U.S. predicts oil prices will drop to $66 next year, halting the rise.

According to multiple sources, negotiations on the Gaza Strip ceasefire agreement are nearing completion. The Jerusalem Post, citing informed sources, reported that barring any "last-minute surprises," the Gaza ceasefire agreement and prisoner exchange deal could be officially announced on January 14th. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majid Al-Ansari stated that Hamas and Israel are engaged in high-level indirect talks on the final details of the agreement, which have now entered the final stage. Al-Ansari cautioned against excessive optimism before the agreement is signed but emphasized that both parties are actively working towards reaching a ceasefire agreement.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest short-term energy outlook report pointed out that global oil production is expected to outpace demand, putting downward pressure on oil prices over the next two years. The EIA forecasts that the average price of Brent crude will be $74 per barrel in 2025, further declining to $66 per barrel in 2026, significantly lower than current market levels.

The EIA noted that the main reasons for the expected decline in oil prices include the potential lifting of the OPEC+ production cut agreement and strong production growth from countries outside of OPEC+. Although OPEC+ is expected to moderately increase production, the organization may take restrictive measures to prevent inventory surpluses. The global oil market is widely expected to face oversupply in 2025, which will exert downward pressure on oil prices.

In this context, the recent rise in international oil prices has been halted. On Tuesday, WTI February crude futures fell by $1.32, or 1.67%, closing at $77.50 per barrel; Brent March crude futures declined by $1.09, or 1.34%, to $79.92 per barrel, both retreating from recent five-month highs. Analysts noted that while market concerns about oversupply are increasing, the Biden administration’s recent new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector add uncertainty to the oil market, casting a shadow over the outlook for oil prices.

Overall, the advancement of the Gaza Strip ceasefire agreement and the U.S. Department of Energy's oil price forecast have become two major focuses of the international energy market recently. Industry insiders indicate that these factors will jointly influence market sentiment and the future direction of energy prices.

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