Powell's exit or continuation shapes global inflation outlook amid rising political pressure

The Federal Reserve Leadership Battle Sparks Inflation Anxiety

Rumors about President Trump's consideration of replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have quickly stirred global financial markets. This move is not just about changing one position, but also concerns the global confidence in America's ability to counter inflation. The Federal Reserve has long played the role of the economic "braking system," and the independence of the chair's position is crucial to effectively curbing market overheating.

Market participants widely worry that frequent political interference in the Federal Reserve's appointments could lead to monetary policy being constrained by administrative orders, rendering anti-inflation policies ineffective under short-term populist pressure.

The Independence of Interest Rate Policy Faces a "Systemic Crisis"

Although the White House claims to "highly respect" the Federal Reserve's independence, signals of firing Powell have frequently emerged from within the Trump team. Currently, this controversy is being framed as dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation budget, but market observers generally see it as an excuse for political changes.

The core intent behind Trump's action is to lay the groundwork for potential future interest rate cuts. If he can appoint a "compliant" successor, future monetary policies might prioritize political agendas over long-term commitments to inflation targets.

Investor Confidence May Suffer "Structural Erosion"

In recent years, although the Federal Reserve's response to post-pandemic high inflation seemed somewhat slow, its subsequent significant interest rate hikes successfully brought inflation down from its peak to near target levels. The key to this success lies in public trust in the central bank's independent actions.

If the chairperson is frequently replaced or perceived as a "puppet" of the president, the market will no longer believe in their willingness to raise rates to combat inflation when necessary. As expectations gradually disintegrate, inflation may turn into a self-reinforcing structural issue, thereby weakening the credibility of the dollar.

A "Lose-Lose Situation" Might Be Unavoidable

Analysts point out that if Trump forcibly replaces Powell and cannot promptly appoint a successor, the Federal Reserve might be "headless" in the short term. Even if a new appointment succeeds, the market will remain highly skeptical of the new chair's independence, further amplifying financial market uncertainty.

Rising inflation expectations are already evident. Data from JPMorgan shows that three-to-four-year inflation expectations have recently increased to 2.36%, reflecting investor doubts about the Federal Reserve's future operations.

Institutional Trust Over Short-term Gains

Currently, the U.S. economy still faces dual challenges of declining inflation and slowing growth, and the Federal Reserve's maneuvering space is already limited. Disrupting its institutional independence at this time would not only fail to enhance short-term policy effects but would also shake the inflation-fighting confidence mechanism built over decades.

Historical experience shows that once political interference becomes normalized, the Federal Reserve's credibility will be hard to restore. At future potential high points in the economic cycle, whether the Federal Reserve can still "apply the brakes" will determine whether the foundation of America's economic stability can be sustained.

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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