2025 oil outlook pressured by weak demand and potential oversupply, risking further price declines.

The Foreign exchange dealer hedginglatest survey shows a bleak outlook for the oil market in 2025, as the dual pressure of sluggish global demand growth and excess supply may lead to further declines in oil prices. Analysts generally predict that the average price of Brent crude will drop from $80.55 per barrel this year to $76.61 per barrel in 2025, marking a continued downward adjustment in expectations over the past several months.

Analysts point out that this pessimistic market outlook primarily stems from three factors. Firstly, the slow growth of oil demand in some major consumer countries in Asia has led to uncertain market prospects. Secondly, the supply from major oil-producing countries is expected to continue increasing, especially with OPEC’s plan to raise production in December this year. Additionally, geopolitical tensions that once impacted the market, particularly concerns over conflicts in the Middle East, have gradually subsided, weakening price support.

The U.S. crude oil price is also expected to fall in 2025, from an estimated $76.73 per barrel this year to $72.73 per barrel in 2025. Market analysis indicates that this downward price expectation, adjusted for six consecutive months, reflects the ongoing challenges facing the oil industry. The survey further shows that global oil demand in 2025 may only increase by 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, while the daily demand growth in 2024 is projected to be between 800,000 to 1.2 million barrels.

Meanwhile, market experts believe that OPEC+ may reconsider its plan to increase production in December. Since demand in the first quarter of 2025 may be seasonally lower than in the fourth quarter of 2024, the production increase could be postponed to spring 2025, such as March or April, to balance the risk of oversupply and price decline.

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