Futures Market Analysis: Price Fluctuations Driven by Supply

Rebar: Demand Supports Price Stability

Rebar prices saw a slight increase of 0.3% last week,Download mt4 official version closing at 3,311 yuan/ton. Despite entering the traditional off-season due to falling temperatures, demand remained relatively stable, with low inventory levels supporting prices. While the overall consumption of the five major steel products in the domestic market decreased, rebar consumption increased by 22,100 tons, and inventory decreased by 50,000 tons, providing support for price increases. Supply adjustments were also seen, with a decline in blast furnace operation rates and ironmaking capacity utilization. Downstream demand remains driven by just-in-time procurement, with market attention on whether downstream demand can be sustained. Rebar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.

Shanghai Silver: Industrial Demand Supports Price Resilience

Shanghai silver rose by 0.22% last week, remaining stable. The easing volatility of the dollar index reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals, but industrial demand continued to support the resilience of silver prices. Global economic data varied, especially the fluctuations in manufacturing indicators, which will impact industrial demand for silver. Shanghai silver is expected to continue to show a strong bias, mainly driven by domestic industrial product inventory data and global economic recovery.

Palm Oil: Limited Short-term Support

Palm oil prices fell by 0.33% last week. Indonesia and Malaysia raised crude palm oil export taxes in December, increasing import costs. Although Malaysia's production cut expectations provided some support, overall demand remained primarily just-in-time, with strong end-market caution. Although the inverted price pattern of oils and fats remained unchanged, the short-term upside for palm oil is limited.

PVC: Weak Demand, Price Pressure

PVC fell by 1.02% last week, with a significant decline. Domestic demand remained sluggish, with insufficient end orders limiting price rebounds. Domestic PVC companies kept high operating rates, but inventory pressure continued to rise. A strong dollar and declining overseas order demand further increased PVC price pressure. In the short term, PVC is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, with a focus on the recovery progress of downstream demand.

Soybean Meal: Pressure from South American Abundance

Soybean meal prices fell slightly by 0.08% last week. With US soybean harvesting complete, expectations of abundant South American soybeans pressured the global soybean market, especially with Brazilian soybean production potentially setting a record. The intensified substitution effect of soybean oil and weak end-market procurement exerted pressure on soybean meal prices. Soybean meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, but attention should be paid to the impact of South American climate changes on soybean production.

Rubber: Weak Demand, Low Prices

Rubber fell by 0.85% last week. Domestic automobile production and sales showed no significant growth, and global economic slowdown limited rubber export demand. On the supply side, natural rubber-producing countries maintained stable supply, but high domestic inventories pressured prices. In the short term, rubber prices are expected to maintain low volatility, with the market focusing on the potential for downstream demand improvement.

Fuel Oil: Weak Demand, Price Decline

Fuel oil fell by 1.18% last week, affected by the international crude oil price adjustment, resulting in price pressure. The slowdown in global economic growth exacerbated negative impacts on fuel oil demand, particularly the sluggish shipping activity in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. In the short term, fuel oil prices are expected to have further downside potential.

PTA: Oversupply, Pressure on Prices

PTA prices fell by 0.72% last week. Domestic PTA operating rates increased, production rose, and inventory pressure gradually built up. On the demand side, orders in the weaving industry decreased, and operating rates declined. The overall pressure on the polyester industry chain led to continued weakness in PTA prices. In the short term, PTA is expected to maintain a weak oscillation.

Corn: Ongoing Supply Pressure

Corn fell by 0.24% last week, with a weak trend. Domestic corn inventories remained high, but demand was weak, particularly with feed demand failing to recover. Internationally, Ukraine’s export recovery and stable US corn production pressured corn prices. In the short term, the corn market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation.

Rapeseed Oil: Ample Supply, Limited Price Increase

Rapeseed oil prices rose by 0.28% last week. Canadian rapeseed production expectations were lowered to 17.8 million tons, and the strong rise in ICE rapeseed futures supported domestic rapeseed oil prices. However, domestic rapeseed oil supply remained ample, with weak end-market consumption leading to slow inventory reduction. The better cost-performance of various oils suggests that in the short term, rapeseed oil's price rise is limited and will remain weakly oscillating.

Overall, the prices of major commodities in the futures market are diversified under the influence of supply and demand, policy, and global economic recovery, with some commodities expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term, while others might gain upward momentum driven by downstream demand recovery or global economic recovery.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own responsibility.

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